BCS Rankings: Oklahoma State In The Title Game Could Put Stanford In Fiesta, Sugar, Even Alamo (Unlikely)

 
The Stanford Cardinal looked like they were ready to pack their bags for the Fiesta Bowl after the LSU Tigers beat down the Georgia Bulldogs to eliminate the embarrassing three SEC team BCS scenario. And after the Virginia Tech Hokies went down to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship game, Stanford seemed to have locked up the #4 spot, which by BCS selection procedure should have assured them an automatic qualifier bid.
After Saturday's results, they may very well still go to the Fiesta Bowl. But it's no longer a guarantee. Not after Bedlam.
The Oklahoma St. Cowboys laid a total smackdown on their rival Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday night in Stillwater, throwing a potential monkey wrench into the Cardinal's BCS title hopes. Oklahoma State looked totally dominant on offense and defense, giving them the big marquee victory they needed to lift them right up with the Alabama Crimson Tide in the BCS title discussion.
Alabama seemed like a total knock-in to be the second representative along with LSU, but a lot of issues are starting to arise. There's a lot of resentment among the non-SEC bloc of the country that two teams from the same conference could play each other for the title, that Alabama doesn't deserve to be there because they didn't even win their own division, much less their conference, that Alabama-LSU would make for an uncompelling and unconvincing matchup based on the defensive slogfest that populated the first contest, that Alabama didn't even need to play Championship weekend to get to the title game. All these element could hurt them with the human votes, and could cost them their BCS title shot.
So Oklahoma State could work their way back into the BCS title picture. They have more wins over ranked teams, more quality victories, a better strength of schedule, and they won the highest-rated conference according to the computers. The computers should have the Cowboys #2 tomorrow, they'll just need the human element to catch up to earn that spot.
But enough about those guys. What happens with Stanford?
Here's the provision that would have applied for the Cardinal if it was an LSU-Alabama title game.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.
6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

Since #1 and #2 would have been SEC teams and #3 would have been the Big 12 champion and provision #5 wouldn't have applied. Provision #6 would have ensured Stanford would have been a BCS eligible team, and they would have very well earned a Fiesta Bowl invite to Tempe to feature Andrew Luck.
But if Alabama drops to #3, provision #5 applies. Stanford would no longer be protected. And as we've said before, Stanford being protected is what they needed to ensure the BCS didn't snub them because of lackluster fan attendance.
So who could take Stanford's spot?
The Crimson Tide would be selected to replace LSU in the Sugar Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl would go next to replace Oklahoma State and then have the first spots, and they have their pick of likely four teams: Kansas State (already in top 14 at-large eligible position), Stanford (the best of the bunch), Michigan (close to top 14 at-large eligible position, and should move there over Michigan State, Georgia and Oklahoma after Saturday), TCU (close to an auto-bid if they hit the top 16 and Michigan State and Georgia drop beneath them). That leaves three spots for four teams, and while it's unlikely, it's possible the Cardinal could be dropped from that group.
It'd be unprecedented for the Cardinal to be dropped out of the BCS altogether to the Alamo at the #4 spot. But it could happen because of the attendance issues. It's unlikely because of the Andrew Luck factor; it's more of a question of whether they'd drop to the Sugar Bowl for a matchup with Alabama.
It's not likely. Stanford should still feel 95% certain they're going to Tempe, and 100% sure if the LSU-Alabama title game holds. But the Cardinal should probably feel definitely uncertain (and perhaps a tad uneasy) like most of the top college football teams going into tomorrow's selection show.

Cyclones upset No. 2 Cowboys to create perfect storm of BCS chaos

First, a disclaimer: This is a column about a football game. Nothing that happened on the field at Jack Trice Stadium means anything when compared to the loss of four lives -- including Oklahoma State women's basketball coach Kurt Budke and assistant Miranda Serna -- in a plane crash on Thursday. Please read George Schroeder's column on the tragedy. And please keep the families who have lost loved ones in your thoughts.
AMES, Iowa -- The way Jeff Woody explained it late Friday night, the unthinkable seemed almost obvious. As he sat smiling, his uniform covered in grass stains, the 240-pound Iowa State back ticked off all the reasons he wound up at the center of a wave of humanity after the Cyclones flipped the national title picture upside down with a 37-31 double-overtime win against No. 2 Oklahoma State.
• Friday was Senior Night.
• Friday's game was broadcast on ESPN. ("The only show in town," Woody said.)
• Iowa State had never beaten a top-five team. (Actually, the Cyclones were 0-56-2 since 1936 against teams ranked in the top six.)
• An ESPN.com blog had given the Cyclones a 12 percent chance of making a bowl game.
"All those factors combined together," Woody said, "it combines into a perfect storm."
One fewer turnover, one different bounce of the ball, and Friday might have fallen into another category. Had the Cowboys eked out a win, the result might have someday made this list of ugly wins en route to a national title:
1998: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 24
2000: Oklahoma 12, Oklahoma State 7
2001: Miami 18, Boston College 7
2006: Florida 17, South Carolina 16
2009: Alabama 12, Tennessee 10
2010: Roughly half of Auburn's games
Instead, the Iowa State shocker will join this list:
1996: Texas 37, Nebraska 27
1998: Texas A&M 36, Kansas State 33, 2OT
2006: UCLA 13, USC 9
2007: Pittsburgh 13, West Virginia 9 (Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was Pitt's defensive coordinator.)
2011: Iowa State 37, Oklahoma State 31 (2OT)
The losing teams on that list were on the cusp of advancing to the national title game when they fell to allegedly overmatched opponents. Iowa State may have been the most allegedly overmatched of them all. The Cowboys needed to breeze by the Cyclones. Then they would have a week off to prepare for Bedlam. There, Oklahoma State could lay a cathartic whooping on Oklahoma -- which has owned the series -- and advance to the national title game. But that's the great thing about college football. It rarely sticks to the script..

It's real simple," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said after studying a stat sheet for about 30 seconds. "If you lose the turnover battle in such a big fashion, it's extremely difficult to win games." All season, the Cowboys' defense had supplemented Oklahoma State's video-game offense with a high-risk, high-reward style that produced turnovers. Entering Friday, the Cowboys led the nation in turnover margin and forced turnovers. Friday, Oklahoma State's defense forced three turnovers -- including an interception that Shaun Lewis returned 70 yards for a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, their offense -- which never quite clicked -- gave the ball to the Cyclones five times as Oklahoma State gagged away a 24-7 lead.
One particularly maddening sequence will stick in the Cowboys' minds for years. After James White's 32-yard touchdown cut Oklahoma State's lead to 24-14, the Cyclones recovered a perfectly executed onside kick. They appeared ready to score again, but James Thomas poked the ball away from Iowa State quarterback Jared Barnett on the nine-yard line, and Oklahoma State's Alex Elkins recovered. Had the Cowboys scored here, the game would have been almost out of reach for the Cyclones. Instead, Oklahoma State tailback Joseph Randle fumbled on the Cowboys' 20-yard line, and Iowa State's Leonard Johnson recovered. The Cyclones converted that turnover into a field goal.
With 5:30 remaining, Albert Gary caught a seven-yard touchdown pass from Barnett, who completed 31 of 60 passes for 376 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Asked if throwing 60 times was part of the game plan, Rhoads scoffed afterward. "He did not," the coach said. Then he looked down at his stat sheet. "Wow."
Tied at 24, Oklahoma State had one more chance to win in regulation. An Elkins interception had given the Cowboys great field position, but the Cyclones held once again on third down. Quinn Sharp lined up for a 37-yard field goal with 1:17 remaining, and he stood stunned as officials signaled that the ball had gone wide right. Sharp stood in the middle of the field and pointed at the upright in disbelief. "Our guys thought it was good," said Gundy, who said he believed the official beneath the upright had the best view and probably made the correct call.
Iowa State had new life. "They played hard. They played harder than us," Oklahoma State defensive end Jamie Blatnick said. "I really can't tell you what happened. We let them hang around. And hang around."
The Cyclones were still hanging around in overtime No. 2 when Weeden tried to force a pass into coverage. Jake Knott tipped the pass, and Ter'Ran Benton grabbed it. All Iowa State needed was a field goal to shock the world.
Rhoads didn't want to kick a field goal. The Cyclones had iced a win against Kansas by running the same play four times in a row. They figured they would try the same strategy again. Woody got the call.
First and 10 from the 25: "Hold on to the damn ball," Woody remembered thinking as he surged for six yards.
Second and four from the 19: "I was literally suspended in the air by the ball," Woody said of his 15-yard rumble. "I had a death grip on it."
First and goal from the four: ""I'm 240," Woody said. "Let inertia do its work." Later, he would continue the physics lesson. "When I'm in motion," he said, "I tend to stay in motion."
Woody steamrolled into the end zone, and the stands emptied. Fans sang Sweet Caroline, and everyone hugged. Meanwhile, voters and talking heads prepared to spin a new set of scenarios.
At the moment, it seems likely that LSU and Alabama will meet in the BCS title game in a rematch of their 9-6 overtime slugfest -- or snoozefest, depending on the viewer's tastes -- from Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa. It also seems an Oklahoma win in Bedlam has been seriously devalued. Oregon has new hope, but a season-opening loss to LSU muddies the picture. Everything can change in the time it takes a back to drag five tacklers into the end zone. There is no guarantee top-ranked LSU will beat Arkansas on Black Friday. Shoot, we don't know whether Houston Nutt might stick it to the Tigers one more time before he leaves Oxford and I take over.
If you think you know what will happen these next few weeks, you're probably wrong. Because no national title contender knows where the next perfect storm will strike.