With Xbox Live Update, Microsoft Rules Your Television Set

Microsoft is releasing an update to its Xbox Live service tonight which will transform the Xbox into a full-on media center. If you own a Kinect, you’ll be able to access movies, music, and streaming services through voice commands. It’s an update that makes the Xbox 360 a powerful home entertainment device, and pushes the ball further toward the vision of PC-TV integration that Bill Gates has been touting for years.

Tim Carmody says that this time, Microsoft is getting it right and Apple is doing it wrong:The major mistake made by most gadget reporters and future of technology speculators is drawing too close an analogy between smartphones and smart televisions. We’ve assumed that the next generation of televisions would have a silver-bullet user interface, as gesture-enabled touchscreens were for smartphones. And every time a new user interface comes along, whether it’s Microsoft’s Kinect or Apple’s Siri, we argue that it’s the future of television.As a consequence, we’ve misunderstood television’s user interface problem. It’s not really about too many cables and too many remotes, as annoying as that can be. It’s really about having the right kind of user interface for the task at hand.That means pluralism, not minimalism. It means that remote controls and game controllers, with all their ugly buttons, aren’t going away, because they’re actually quite good at what they do.Instead, they’ll be connected to and complemented by specialized interface devices like cameras, microphones, and touchscreen smartphones and tablets. These will take over some functions, introduce new ones, or even duplicate functionality.It’s not one ring to rule them all. It’s e pluribus unum.

In other words, it’s the multi-faceted approach Microsoft is taking, pushing lots of devices and content and partnerships with content providers. But, Tim adds, “when I say “Apple is wrong,” I really mean that the conventional wisdom about what Apple will do is wrong.”

Tim is skeptical that a high-cost, high-tech Apple TV will sell at a premium price point, as some analysts are suggesting. Instead, look to the Xbox and the Microsoft approach, ad hoc and late to the game though it may appear (where is the Windows Tablet after all?)As with all things tech it’s impossible to say. One thing is certain, though: lots of Xbox Live subscribers will get very little sleep tonight.