I would've put my picks down last week, but was too lazy/balls deep in The Wire, which is probably the greatest show in TV history. I went 3-1 on spreads, missing on the Bengals (and I've successfully convinced myself, when I lay in bed at night thinking about my missed bets, that if just two plays in that game went differently, a 21-point Bengals loss would've actually been a win, so that's nice).....and 0-4 on over/unders. Not a good weekend for over/unders, but then again I've never been very good at those.
Saints (-3.5) over 49ERS
I'm betting on the Saints until they don't cover; they're a MACHINE right now. However, even though there's a terrible chance at it happening, I do have $5, at 25-1 odds, that the 49ers win the NFC. I love longshot bets; they are easily the most fun when they hit. I made that bet when the Niners were 3-1, and I thought 'hey, they're probably going to win their crappy division, get a 2 seed and a first round bye, and then all they have to do is sneak out a home victory and pull off a miracle against (probably) Green Bay.' At 25-1? I love that bet. Especially for only 5 bucks. It looks a lot worse now, since the Saints and Packers look like the two best teams in the league by far, but whaddya want for 25-1? I can't complain. (Side note: If anyone wants to hop on my longshot baseball bet for 2012, it's Cleveland to win the AL at 30-1. Those are ridiculously high odds for a decently talented team playing in a wide-open division. Get to the baseball playoffs and anything can happen.)
PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Broncos
I'm mildly terrified to bet against Tebow at this point, but I think last week was their Super Bowl. They'll have a little bit of a "Just happy to be here!" glow (similar to the look on Noles' face when he was dancing with a random girl from our high school on the coffee table at Culligan) and the Patriots will beat it right off of their faces. They've got a few years of playoff frustration to take out on them (did you know the Pats haven't won a playoff game since the AFC Championship game in January 2008? In Will Ferrell Elf voice: "That's shocking.")
PACKERS (-8) over Giants
I seriously have no clue about the Giants. Ever. This goes back for my entire gambling career. In 2006, I predicted they'd win the Super Bowl, then watched them barely make the playoffs. If you exclude our March Madness Vegas trip in 2006, I've never lost more money gambling in a single month than in January 2008, when Eli fucking Manning won three straight road playoff games, then beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. Fuckin' a regular Staubach, over there. This year, I don't know if I've picked one of their games correctly. I said my lock of the year was for the under on the 9.5 wins over/under pick, watched in horror as they started 6-2 (killing multiple teasers and parlays along the way) breathed easy when they lost four in a row, then barely squeaked out a win when they finished 9-7. Not what you're looking for on your "lock of the year" bet. So before last week's game, I decided to go George Costanza with the G-men, and do the opposite of what I actually think. I thought the Falcons could cover, so I went with the Giants....and they won by 22 points. So I'm sticking with the Costanza pick this week. I think the Giants could keep this one close....ipso facto, Go Pack Go!
RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
I don't particulary like either of these teams. Normally the rule is to take the points when in doubt, but I just can't get behind a rookie 5th-round QB on the road against one of the best defense/crowd combos in the NFL. I think both the Saints and Packers would beat either of these teams by a couple of touchdowns, for what it's worth.
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Allow me to introduce you to a website that was brought into my life by Kyle: the Internet K-hole. It's strangely captivating to see all these totally random pictures from previous decades. It's not totally safe for the work though; every 50 pictures or so, some nudity gets slipped in. Just adds to the weirdness of the site. It's like playing duck-duck-goose with nudey pics......Normal, normal, normal, BOOBS! Normal, normal, normal, normal, PENIS! Also, if you're gonna troll through it, having a soundtrack for yourself is essential. For example, every time Kyle gets his K-hole on, he blasts the Shaft theme song. As for me, I'm partial to 'Stranglehold' by Ted Nugent. You gotta get into the right frame of mind for the K-hole, son.
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